New Delhi [India], December 29 : Gold is expected to remain the standout performer among commodities in 2026, supported by strong central bank demand and rising geopolitical risks, according to Goldman Sachs' latest commodities outlook.
The report stated that Goldman Sachs expects "central bank gold buying to remain strong in 2026, averaging 70 tonnes per month," a level that is "4 times above the 17 tonnes pre-2022 monthly average."
The report added that this trend alone is expected to "contribute about 14pp to our predicted price increase by Dec 26," driven by heightened geopolitical risk perceptions, particularly after "the freezing of Russia's reserves in 2022."
Goldman Sachs also highlights potential upside risks from private investors, noting that "gold ETFs account for just 0.17 per cent of US private financial portfolios," and estimating that "every 1bp increase in the gold share of US financial portfolios... raises the gold price by 1.4 per cent."
Reflecting these dynamics, the firm forecasts a sharp rise in gold prices, stating, "We forecast the gold price to rise to USD 4,900 by Dec 26."
Silver, while not discussed as extensively as gold, is expected to benefit from the broader strength in precious metals.
The report noted that "precious metals... tend to benefit from Fed cuts" and highlighted that the precious metals segment delivered strong returns in 2025, which formed part of the backdrop for continued investor interest in 2026. The Goldman Sachs report underscores that gold remains its "single favourite long commodity," suggesting supportive conditions for the wider precious metals complex, including silver.
In the base metals sector, copper is expected to consolidate after a strong rally. Goldman Sachs notes that "the copper price has rallied from USD 10,600 in November to USD 11,700" amid tariff-related expectations. However, the bank adds, "We forecast the copper price to consolidate in 2026 and average USD 11,400/t," assuming tariff uncertainty persists into mid-2026.
Despite near-term consolidation, the long-term outlook for copper remains constructive. The report emphasises that copper "remains our 'favourite' industrial metal, especially in the long run," supported by electrification trends, which "drive nearly half of copper demand."
Goldman Sachs also highlights that copper is "so critical for strategic sectors such as AI, the power grid, and defence," which could keep a floor under prices even in a weaker growth environment.
For lead, the report points to a more subdued outlook, in line with broader expectations for certain industrial metals. While Goldman Sachs does not provide specific price forecasts for lead, it expects "significant return differentiation across commodities" in 2026, with industrial metals overall facing pressure as supply growth improves.
The report noted that strong supply growth in several metals is driven by "Chinese overseas investments to guarantee security of metals critical in the AI and geopolitical race," which may weigh on prices for metals with less pronounced demand tailwinds.
Overall, the report noted that while commodity index returns may moderate in 2026, structural forces linked to geopolitics, energy transition and supply concentration will continue to shape outcomes, leaving gold firmly in focus and copper supported over the long term, even as other base metals, including lead, face more mixed prospects.