New Delhi [India], April 15 : The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an above-normal rainfall season across the country during the southwest monsoon.
According to IMD's forecast released today, the seasonal June to September rainfall is expected to be above normal, with quantitative estimates indicating it could reach 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for the period 1971-2020 stands at 87 cm.
IMD's announcement comes amidst prevailing moderate El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. However, the latest projections from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other climate models suggest a weakening of the El Nino condition to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the early part of the monsoon season.
Additionally, La Nina conditions are anticipated to develop during the latter half of the monsoon period, potentially impacting rainfall patterns across India.
El Nino and La Nina are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide.
Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. Nonetheless, IMD's latest climate model forecasts hint at the likelihood of positive IOD conditions emerging during the later part of the southwest monsoon season, adding another dimension to the monsoon dynamics.
According to a press release, IMD said that the northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March 2024) has been below normal. Such deviations from the norm in snow cover extent could influence weather patterns, including the forthcoming monsoon season.
The forecast of above-normal rainfall raises prospects for agricultural productivity and water reserves across the country. However, it also underscores the importance of preparedness measures to mitigate potential risks associated with flooding and landslides, particularly in vulnerable regions.
IMD emphasizes the need for stakeholders to closely monitor evolving climate patterns and undertake proactive measures to ensure the safety and well-being of communities, as well as to optimize agricultural planning and water resource management strategies.