New Delhi [India], May 1 : India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall in May 2026 even as temperature patterns remain mixed across regions, with some parts expected to face above-normal heatwave conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest monthly outlook.
"During May 2026, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country," the IMD said in a press release issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences. However, it added that "above-normal temperatures are likely in many parts of southern peninsular India, some parts of the northeast, and northwest India."
The weather agency said minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over large parts of the country, although some regions in northwest, central and adjoining peninsular India may see normal to below-normal night temperatures.
On heatwave conditions, IMD warned that "above normal heatwave days are likely over some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra," indicating continued risk of extreme heat in select belts.
Rainfall during the month is likely to be stronger than average nationwide. "The rainfall during May 2026 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>110% of LPA)," the IMD said, referring to the long-period average. However, it cautioned that parts of east, northeast and east-central India could receive below-normal rainfall.
The IMD noted that broader climate signals are shifting, with oceanic conditions pointing toward a warmer phase ahead. "ENSO-neutral conditions are evolving toward El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific," it said, adding that models indicate El Nino development during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
It also said neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, but "positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season."