By Siddhant Garud
Patna (Bihar) [India], November 14 : Nitish Kumar is projected to get a fifth term as Chief Minister of Bihar as per the latest trends of the assembly election from the Election Commission, which showed a decisive lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in more than 200 seats out of the 243-seat assembly.
It appears that a combination of factors, including vote consolidation and women rallying behind their trusted leader, has contributed to the NDA inching towards a sweeping victory.
Mahila vote
Women voters outnumbered men in the two-phase assembly elections held on November 6 and November 11. The state recorded a historic turnout of 67.13%, the highest since 1951, with 71.6% women voting compared to 62.8% of men. This is despite the fact that men outnumbered men in the updated electoral rolls by nearly 4.3 lakh. This nearly 9-point difference could point to the voter block rallying behind Nitish Kumar, getting behind the multiple women's welfare measures implemented under the Nitish Kumar-led government.
Ahead of the assembly elections, CM Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced Rs 10,000 under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, benefitting nearly 1.25 crore women under the scheme. The Mahagathbandhan seemed to have failed to connect to the women voter base despite announcing job schemes, and an increase in allowance to Jeevika didis.
Clean, corruption-free image
NDA also seemed to have banked on Nitish Kumar's corruption-free image, in direct contrast to RJD chief Lalu Prasad Prasad, who has faced conviction in the fodder scam, and is also cases related to "corruption scams".
Lalu Prasad is undergoing trial in an IRCTC hotels corruption case after Delhi's Rouse Avenue Court framed charges against him, his son Tejashwi Yadav and others. The court framed charges in connection with Lalu Yadav's tenure as Railway Minister regarding the tender of two IRCTC hotels in Ranchi and Puri.
The image of "being clean" was repeated multiple times by the NDA, contrasting the idea of 'Viksit Bihar' with the 20-year-old "jungle raj" under the RJD. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh also highlighted during campaigning how "not a single corruption case" has been framed against Kumar.
Alliance partners returning to NDA fold
With the support of three other parties in the NDA, including by Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) chief Upendra Khushwaha, and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) Jitan Ram Manjhi the NDA sweep seems to be an exercise in consolidation of votes the different parties could get.
In 2020, LJP(RV) chief Chirag Paswan did not ally with any party and contested seats on its own. However, this time around the NDA seemed to want to keep LJP(RV) in its fold, with the party contesting 29 seats.
The performance of the alliance partners seemed to have their successful performance. While HAMS was only given 6 seats, as per ECI the party has been leading in 5 seats. LJP(RV) has been leading in 26 out of 29 seats, while the RLM is also leading in 4 out of 6 seats they are contesting, with each partner having a conversion rate of around 90%.
While Manjhi belongs to the Musahar community, one of Bihar's mahadalit group Khushwaha belongs to the Koeri/Khushwaha community, with the alliance's calculation of consolidating community votes coming to fruition.
Success of Social Engineering
While keeping alliance partners satisfied has been a key segment, the BJP itself has kept an eye on the diverse base in Bihar. BJP itself has given tickets to OBCs, Scheduled Castes while also making sure that various subgroups are also represented in its tickets, including giving atleast 29 seats to SC candidates in a state with nearly 38 SC reserved constituencies.
The election results trend may be disappointing for the opposition Mahagathbandhan, but they shouldn't come as a surprise or shock. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi carried out a 16-day 'Voter Adhikar Yatra' in an attempt to consolidate votes to oppose the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise carried out by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
The BJP, a party that consolidates the votes of upper castes, and JD(U), which keeps together non-landed Other Backward Classes (OBCs), have helped each other to maintain power in these assembly elections.
The social alliances within the NDA have been a necessary factor in the BJP-JD(U) combination's success in outpacing the opposition grand alliance. Although named as the grand alliance, the opposition coming together is significantly smaller compared to the NDA's consolidation of different communities, which are mostly non-Yadav (or non-landed) OBCs and upper castes.
Development Pitch of NDA
Development for the 'poor' state of Bihar has been a strong poll pitch for the NDA. While the alliance reminded people of the 'jungle raj', it also highlighted that it is the NDA combine which has brought forward development in the state.
The NDA had also given considerable focus to the state in the Union Budget, announcing the Makhana Board, and distributing Rs 10,000 to lakhs of women under the Mahila Rojgar Yojana.
PM Modi had also recently inaugurated the new terminal in the Purnea airport. The party has also promised various developmental initiatives in their manifesto, including promising 1 crore jobs to the youth in five years, boosting infrastructural development, including new cities, airports under the idea of 'Viksit Bihar'.
According to the Election Commission of India, as of 3 pm, the NDA alliance has a lead in nearly 204 seats, with the BJP leading in 92, JD(U) leading in 83, LJP(RV) leading in 20, HAMS leading in 5, and RLM leading in 4.
Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan has shown a dismal performance. The RJD is leading in 26 seats, while the Congress leads in only 3 seats, despite both of them contesting more than 80 seats each.
In 2020, polling took place in three phases. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had secured 125 seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) won 110.
Among the major parties in 2020, the Janata Dal (United) secured 43 seats, the BJP secured 74, the RJD secured 75 seats, and the Congress secured 19. The JD(U) contested 115 constituencies, the BJP 110, whereas the RJD contested 144 seats and the Congress 70.