New Delhi [India], August 15 : India-US relations have entered a turbulent phase under President Donald Trump, with former Deputy National Security Adviser Pankaj Saran warning the strain should be viewed as part of a wider global disruption rather than an isolated setback.
In an interview with ANI, Saran offered a measured assessment of the bilateral relationship against the backdrop of shifting geopolitics and Trump's return to the forefront of American politics.
"There's only one man in the world who knows what's going to happen next, and that is President Trump. Not even his cabinet officials. They're also the last to know, as we are," Saran said.
When asked if the trajectory of the India-US relationship, which had seen consistent growth since George W. Bush's era, is facing a major speedbreaker under Trump, Saran replied, "I think so. I mean, I think so. But we're not the only ones," noting that Europe, too, is feeling the effect of a disrupted global order.
Recalling conversations with European scholars, Saran said that even before Trump's return, there was unease about the future of NATO and the transatlantic partnership.
"I have been visiting Europe and talking to a lot of European scholars, you know, before January, they were all extremely worried about what would be the consequence of a Trumpian foreign policy on the European alliance; they were even talking about the existence of the NATO alliance, the transatlantic alliance. They were even talking about that, it is time has come to maybe de-link ourselves from the United States. Instead of having a US-led NATO, to have a European-led NATO, they even talked about issues about a coalition of the willing, that since Europe is large and diverse, a few of them should get together and handle their own security. So the French, the Germans, the Italians, you know, they started asserting themselves. Recalibrating now," he said.
Saran stressed the importance of placing India's current challenges in a global context. "When we look at ourselves, it's better to look at what we are going through in a larger context. To understand why it is happening. The question is, are we the only ones, or is it part and parcel of a bigger disruption globally that we are going through? And I think we are going through a disruption," he said.
Highlighting the overall situation, he said, "To make a policy response, you have to understand who you're dealing with. And what is the overall situation? If you are making a policy response on the analysis that you're the only one getting hit and everyone else is fine, then there'll be a certain kind of policy response. But if you have figured that you're part and parcel of a bigger global disruption, then you will tweak and modify how you respond."
"So, yes, I think we are to be sure at a difficult moment in the relationship, something which we actually never expected," he added.
"You're dealing with a global power. You can't, you're not an equal, and you have to be realistic. Bravado and being rash and being kind of thumping your chest or the table is not going to help," he said, emphasising the need for a measured approach.
Saran noted that ties initially enjoyed a "honeymoon phase" in the early months of Trump's return to politics but have since soured. "It is now after eight months or seven months that he's turned his attention to us. And we lived through a fairly nice honeymoon phase for the first few months. But now we're getting into his crosshairs," he said.
Reiterating to the unpredictability of Trump's approach, Saran said, "There's only one man in the world who knows what's going to happen next, and that is President Trump. Not even his cabinet officials. They're also the last to know, as we are."
"If we give him the benefit of doubt, he's got it figured in his mind what he actually wants at a very broad macro level. He's looking at the world as a chessboard, as a deal-making platform. He's looking at each country, how it fits into his bigger design. It's quite amazing that the only person who knows the next step is him," he added.