New Delhi [India], January 21 : Former US Army officer, foreign policy analyst and commentator Daniel L Davis has warned that a "danger window" for possible US-Israel military strikes against Iran could open around the 26th of this month.
Speaking during an interview with ANI, Davis said that based on recent military deployments and discussions he has had with individuals possessing knowledge of developments in Iran and within the US Department of Defence, which has now been renamed the Department of War, the likelihood of military action appears to be increasing.
"From what I can gather from talking to some sources I have with some knowledge, if not contacts, in Iran and others that I have talked to in recent days that have knowledge about things in the US, Department of Defence, for example, it looks like a window of opportunity is going to open up somewhere around the 26th of this month, where the naval power will be on site and in a position where it can actually do something. That's where the danger window opens up," Davis said.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump floated the possibility of potential military strikes on Iran following nationwide anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic, driven by soaring inflation, economic hardship and mounting public anger over governance.
He also called for an end to the 37-year rule of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's regime, saying, "It's time to look for new leadership in Iran."
According to Davis, the positioning of US naval assets and combat aircraft suggests that Washington may soon be able to carry out strikes if a political decision is made.
He added that evidence points to both the United States and Israel moving in that direction, though he cautioned that "until bombs start falling, anything can change."
"The US and Israel have made a decision that that's what they want to do. Evidence suggests that's the case. Until bombs start falling, anything can change that. But right now, it looks to me like they're both moving ahead with that," the former US Army Officer said.
Addressing speculation that recent rhetoric and military movements--such as the redeployment of US fighter jets and the presence of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East--could be a strategic bluff or "head fake", Davis dismissed that interpretation, pointing to past US military actions.
"Based on his actions in the first 12 months in office, I would not put any stock in that," Davis said, referring to President Trump.
"He's attacked targets in Somalia, in Iraq, in Syria, obviously in Venezuela, and in Yemen. Now, maybe going back into Iran again. It's a gamble to say this is a head fake because those weren't head fakes," he added.
According to a US-based news network, News Nation, citing sources, the US Defence Headquarters, The Pentagon, has stated that it is redeploying a US carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility, which includes the Middle East.
The carrier strike group is centred on an aircraft carrier and supported by multiple warships, including at least one attack submarine. The USS Abraham Lincoln is reported to be the aircraft carrier heading to the region.
Meanwhile, CBS News, citing two US Defence Department officials, reported that Trump was briefed on a broad range of military and covert options that could be employed against the Islamic Republic, extending well beyond conventional airstrikes.
According to CBS News, the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of national security discussions, said the options include integrated military, cyber, and psychological operations.
Davis further suggested that Israel may be prepared to absorb retaliatory missile strikes from Iran if it has firm backing from Washington. He claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had earlier delayed any action in mid-January due to insufficient combat power in the region.
"One of the reasons why, reportedly, Netanyahu himself is the one who said don't attack on the 14th or 15th of January was because there wasn't enough combat power in the region," the former US Army Officer said.
"Now combat power in the region is coming, implying that there's probably a bigger set, and probably with the regime itself to try and knock that out," he added.
However, Davis warned that targeting Iran's leadership or regime could trigger a full-scale war, noting that Iranian officials, including the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have issued explicit warnings that US bases across the region would be at risk in such a scenario.
"The regime has definitely said categorically that if you go after the regime, then it's full-scale war and they'll hold nothing back," Davis said, adding that the IRGC chief has stated that "no American base will be safe" if Iran is attacked.
Raising concerns about the aftermath of any potential regime-change operation, Davis said his biggest fear was the lack of planning for what would follow the removal of Iran's leadership, referring to recent comments on the matter by US Congressman Lindsey Graham.
He drew parallels with past US-led interventions in Iraq and Libya, noting the same rhetoric made by former US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld.
"That's my biggest worry at all. And the biggest red flag I've seen to date, where anyone has even addressed that was Lindsey Graham in a press gaggle last Friday, and he actually said out loud, emphatically, that 'This is like a Berlin Wall falling kind of moment. Once we take the regime out, all kinds of good things become possible, and we can usher in a whole era of freedom and peace in the Middle East.' And I was just like, 'You did not just say that out loud.' That's almost exactly what Donald Rumsfeld said about Iraq in 2003, that 'this is going to usher in an era of peace and democracy in the Middle East.' And we all know how that worked out. We all know how it worked out when we took Gaddafi out of Libya," Davis said.
Davis argued that the removal of Iran's leadership could lead to widespread instability, violence, or even civil war, particularly if external actors attempt to impose a replacement leadership.
"That hasn't brought in peace. There is still all kinds of chaos and violence going on in the area. That's far from being settled at all," he said.
"Everywhere you go, you have violence and chaos that follows. And the idea that there's any kind of peace, if anyone's thinking, 'They'll put in the former son, the Shah's son, Reza,' that's nonsense. That would almost guarantee a civil war," the former officer added.
Concluding his remarks, Davis said that while Graham may downplay the risks noting that a military confrontation with Iran would neither be quick nor peaceful.
"Lindsey Graham is either dead wrong or he's just saying that to get the authorisation to go in there. He doesn't care if there's chaos. I don't know which it is, but I can tell you it won't be easy, painless, or peaceful afterwards," Davis noted.