New York [US], June 24 : Zohran Kwame Mamdani, a New York State Assembly member and democratic socialist, is ahead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City's ranked-choice Democratic primary for mayor, according to a new poll released on Monday.
Born in Uganda, Mamdani is Indian-American or of South Asian descent. He is the first South Asian man to serve in the New York State Assembly, the first Ugandan, and the only third Muslim ever to be a member of the body.
In its hypothetical initial round of voting, Cuomo's lead reduced to 3 percentage points, with 35 per cent of likely Democratic voters backing him compared to 32 per cent for Mamdani and 13 per cent for city Comptroller Brad Lander, New York Post reported, citing the Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey.
City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams comes in third spot with eight per cent, Scott Stringer three per cent, and Zellnor Myrie, Whitney Tilson, Jessica Ramos have five per cent votes and Michael Blake, with another four per cent undecided.
As none of the candidates has received support of over 50 per cent of the vote needed to win outright, the ranked choice system kicks me, which implies that even if a voter's first choice is eliminated in successive rounds of calculations, their other choices could still be in the mix and emerge as the eventual overall winner.
Mamdani received more votes than Cuomo in the eighth round of the simulated ranked choice voting -- 51.8 per cent to 48.2 per cent -- in the latest poll conducted between June 18 - 20.
In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo's 12, making him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.
Cuomo was ahead of Mamdani by 12 points in the initial ballot in the Emerson poll last month and still finished up eight points ahead of Mamdani in the 10th round of ranked choice voting at the time, from 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
Cuomo has a one-percentage-point lead--40.5 per cent to 39.4 per cent in the seventh round--when Lander is eliminated with 20 per cent of the vote.
The majority of Lander's voters then chose Mamdani instead of Cuomo in round eight, putting the Democratic socialist Queens assemblyman up by 3.6 percentage points, the New York Post reported.
Lander cross-endorsed Mamdani as his preferred candidate if he does not win. The left-wing Working Families Party also asked voters not to rank Cuomo.
Other polls, including a Marist College Institute for Public Opinion survey released last week, have shown that Cuomo is winning but Mamdani is closing ground.
The Emerson College poll asked voters whether they had voted during early voting or were waiting to vote on primary day, Tuesday. People who have already voted during the early voting period have broken for Mamdani, who holds a 10-point lead over Cuomo, 41 per cent to 31 per cent.
Cuomo leads Mamdani 36 per cent to 31 per cent among people who plan to cast a ballot on Tuesday. Voters aged below 50 support Mamdani by a 2-1 margin while Cuomo leads among Dems aged between 50 to 59 by 63 per cent to 37 per cent and those aged above 60 by 56 per cent to 44 per cent.
Voters of colour support Cuomo over Mamdani by 62 to 38 per cent. Hispanic voters also back Cuomo 60 per cent to 40 per cent. Mamdani has more support among white voters, 61 per cent to 39 per cent and among Asian voters, 79 per cent to 21 per cent.
Among voters without a four-year college degree, Cuomo leads Mamdani by 61 per cent to 39 per cent, while Mamdani is ahead of Cuomo among college-educated voters, 62 per cent to 38 per cent.
Men support Mamdani 56 per cent to 44 per cent, while women back Cuomo 52 per cent to 48 per cent. The new ranked-choice poll of 729 likely Democratic voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, which implies the race is up for grabs.
Emerson College surveyed the voters by texting them on their mobile phones and by landline robocalls, along with an online panel of voters. In the last poll before the 2021 Democratic primary for mayor, the Emerson College poll showed Eric Adams ahead of Kathryn Garcia, 52 per cent to 48 per cent. Adams won by less than 1 percentage point, the New York Post reported.
The Cuomo camp rejected the survey conducted by Emerson College as off the mark. Cuomo campaign spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said, "This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election -- including two released last week -- has shown Governor Cuomo with a double-digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow."
Azzopardi added, "Between now and then, we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as Mayor."