New Delhi [India], October 29 : Global refinancing risks are expected to increase sharply in 2028, with debt repayments due from companies with lower credit ratings projected to rise to USD 222 billion from USD 61 billion in 2027, according to a report by S&P Global.
The report highlighted that corporate borrowers continue to face uncertainty due to AI-related concentration risks, geopolitical tensions and high bond yields, which could increase borrowing costs.
While corporate issuers remain broadly resilient, S&P Global warned of growing differences between companies with stronger and weaker credit ratings as debt servicing costs increase and older debt is refinanced at higher interest rates.
The report said companies actively refinanced their upcoming debt obligations during the third quarter of 2026, helping reduce immediate repayment pressures. However, some borrowers may have advanced their refinancing plans amid geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further interest rate hikes by major central banks.
S&P Global noted that global speculative-grade nonfinancial debt maturities are expected to rise significantly after 2027.
“Global speculative-grade nonfinancial maturities rated by S&P Global Ratings peak in 2031 at USD 902 billion, with maturities escalating quickly after 2027. Between 2027 and 2028, annual speculative-grade nonfinancial maturities are set to more than double to USD 588 billion,” it said.
The report said companies rated 'B-' and below, which carry a higher risk of default, are particularly vulnerable to rising borrowing costs and market uncertainty. Their debt repayments are expected to increase sharply in 2028, despite recent efforts to refinance upcoming obligations.
“Borrowers substantially reduced the amount of speculative-grade debt coming due in the next two years.”
Between July 1 and October 1, 2026, speculative-grade nonfinancial debt maturities declined by 18 per cent for 2027 and 14 per cent for 2028, the report said.
The decline was more pronounced among companies with lower credit ratings.
“2027 maturities of debt rated 'B-' and below saw an even more pronounced decline of 23%, and 2028 maturities were down 17%,” it said.
Despite the reduction in near-term repayment obligations, S&P Global cautioned that a substantial amount of lower-rated debt remains due over the coming years.
“The material drop in 'B-' and below rated maturities in 2027 and the sharp acceleration in 2028 maturities may suggest that recent borrower activity has been heavily skewed toward addressing refinancing needs for debt maturing in the next 24 months,” it said.