New Delhi [India], April 21 : Domestic steel prices are expected to 'remain firm' in the near term, driven by supply-side constraints and rising input costs, according to a report by Elara Capital.
"We expect domestic steel prices to remain firm for the next couple of months, supported by supply disruption amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, elevated freight rates, and rising raw material costs, with mills indicating further price hikes," the report said.
The report noted that the recent rise in prices is largely cost-driven rather than demand-led.
The report highlighted rising input costs as a key factor behind the price momentum. "Input cost pressures have intensified, with international thermal coal prices up ~18 per cent in March 2026... alongside persistent gas shortages," it said.
On the aluminium front, the report expects prices to stay elevated due to supply disruptions and higher costs. "Prices are likely to remain elevated, driven by high thermal coal cost, elevated capacity utilization, and supply disruptions in the Middle East," it said, adding that the region accounts for around 8 per cent of global production.
The report also pointed to mixed global trends in steel production. "Global crude steel production remains weak in February, down ~2 per cent year-on-year (YoY)...," it said, while noting that "China's crude steel production increased ~1 per cent MoM, marking its second consecutive month of recovery."
In India, production trends remained relatively strong on an annual basis. "India's crude steel production rose ~11 per cent YoY but fell ~8 per cent MoM to ~14.0 million tonne in February," the report said.
India's Trade dynamics have also improved, with "imports declined by ~40 per cent YoY... while exports increased ~31 per cent YoY," it noted.
In the non-ferrous segment, most metals declined in March, but aluminium prices increased. "Most of the non-ferrous metals basket witnessed further correction in March, except for aluminium," the report said, adding that "LME aluminium rose by ~10% MoM... driven by supply concerns amid escalating West Asia conflict."
It added that aluminium prices rose sharply due to supply concerns. "The surge was driven by supply concerns amid escalating West Asia conflict," the report said.
Overall, the report indicated that supply-side pressures, geopolitical factors, and rising input costs are currently shaping trends across the metals and mining sector.