New Delhi [India], November 15 : India’s merchandise trade deficit is likely to narrow in November as oil and gold imports ease, Emkay Global Financial Services said in an economic research note, after the gap widened to a one-year high of USD 39.88 billion in October.
“The deficit is likely to fall in November on account of lower oil and gold imports,” the brokerage said.
The goods trade deficit stood at USD 30.21 billion in September. Merchandise imports rose nearly 20 per cent from September to USD 89.35 billion in October, outpacing an 11 per cent increase in exports, which reached a record USD 49.47 billion.
Oil imports rose 24 per cent month-on-month to USD 22.8 billion. Emkay said the rise likely reflected deliveries of cargoes contracted in September, when average oil prices had risen to about USD 100 a barrel. Gold imports climbed to USD 5.5 billion from about USD 1.8 billion in September as festive demand picked up.
India’s estimated services trade surplus rose to USD 19.8 billion in October, up 13 per cent from a year earlier. The September surplus was revised up to USD 19.2 billion from USD 16.9 billion. Emkay expects year-on-year growth in the surplus to slow in the coming months, given that it averaged about USD 20 billion a month between November and March last financial year.
For FY27, Emkay retained its forecast for India’s current account deficit at 1.7 per cent of GDP, assuming Brent crude averages USD 100 a barrel. The brokerage said a lower average oil price could reduce the full-year deficit.
“However, there is downside potential if oil prices remain lower; FY27E CAD/GDP dips to 1.4% at $90/bbl average Brent,” the note said.