New Delhi [India], July 17 : Global concerns over critical minerals have shifted from whether supplies can meet rising demand to the vulnerabilities created by highly concentrated supply chains, particularly in processing and refining, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.
The report also said supply deficits for copper and lithium are expected to persist through 2035, while prices of several key minerals have rebounded amid tighter supply conditions and export restrictions.
According to the IEA, the focus has shifted because governments are increasingly concerned about the resilience of supply chains rather than just the availability of minerals. "Although supply adequacy remains a major concern for some materials, notably copper, governments are now placing greater attention on resilience, diversification and security of supply in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment," the report said.
Despite an improving pipeline of mining projects, the report said supply-demand gaps are expected to remain for some key minerals. It projected that copper and lithium will continue to face supply deficits through 2035, although the outlook for copper has improved as new projects, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, move forward. However, "a projected supply gap has emerged for cobalt due to the DRC's new export quota," highlighting how policy decisions by major producers can quickly reshape global supply.
The tightening supply outlook has also pushed prices higher. According to the report, "critical mineral prices rebounded in 2025 and early 2026 after declining in recent years." Lithium prices more than doubled amid strong demand from energy storage applications and constrained supply, cobalt prices rose by around 130 per cent following export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while copper prices reached record highs. Prices of strategic minor minerals also more than doubled, with tungsten surging sixfold.
The report said export restrictions have heightened supply risks and turned long-standing concerns over concentrated supply into a pressing economic issue. "The proliferation of export controls by dominant suppliers in recent years has transformed these concerns from a theoretical vulnerability into an immediate economic and industrial security challenge," it said.
The IEA also noted that refining capacity remains concentrated despite efforts to diversify supply chains. Indonesia accounted for most of the growth in nickel refining over the past two years, while China dominated refining expansion for most other key energy minerals. Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72 per cent in 2025 from 70 per cent in 2023, reinforcing the need for more diversified supply chains, the report said.