New Delhi [India], June 6 : Bernstein expects India's data center capacity to surge to the higher end of 5-8GW by 2030 from 1.5GW today, driven by Middle East capacity constraints pushing demand here.
The biggest "right to win" won't be compute hardware but access to land and substation power in the right locations. Navi Mumbai is already seeing a fight for land at prices higher than last transactions, and players with locked thermal equipment, grid connectivity and large land banks will dominate.
Bernstein's industry checks show DC capex in India, ex-compute, is Rs 50 Cr/MW, lower than the US. Colocation landlords that build and lease infrastructure to hyperscalers/enterprises who bring their own GPUs. Payback is 5 years and capex is $8-15Mn per MW. Neoclouds/GPU hosts that own the GPUs and offer rentals of fully built clusters. They generate 8-10x higher revenue per IT MW than colocation but need ~$45Mn capex, face shorter contracts and tech obsolescence risk.
Bernstein expects Indian players to predominantly adopt the colocation model, letting hyperscalers take GPU balance-sheet risk.
Bernstein notes PJM and ERCOT became data center hubs due to deregulated power markets, cheap land and faster interconnection. US wait times for interconnect now average 6 years, making dispatchable capacity critical. In the US, utilities with gas and nuclear in PJM/ERCOT like Vistra, Constellation and NRG surged 4-8x in 4 years as PJM capacity prices jumped from $29/MW-day to $329/MW-day. Premiums went to clean dispatchable power and behind-the-meter co-location.
For India, Bernstein says Adani Group's dominance is "unmatched" given it's the largest renewable, private thermal and transmission player, with large land parcels and grid connectivity. Reliance Industries also holds 0.5 Mn acres in Gujarat and 5K acres in Navi Mumbai. Even crypto miners with power off-take agreements are pivoting to DC colocation, underlining that electricity access trumps everything.
Valuations for global DC operators like Equinix and Digital Realty sit at 22-23x EV/EBITDA, in line with Blackstone's AirTrunk deal at 21x. As India scales from 1.5GW to 5-8GW, asset owners with power + land will command similar premiums. The next 3-5 years will be about who can secure substation access and dispatchable power fastest, not just who can build shells.