New Delhi, [India] October 17 : The United States' decision to waive additional tariffs linked to India's purchases of Russian oil provides temporary relief to New Delhi but offers no lasting certainty, as Washington retains the authority to reinstate the duties, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
US President Donald Trump waived the punitive tariffs on October 16 under the newly enacted Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (SRIA), easing the threat of additional duties of up to 100 per cent on goods from major buyers of Russian oil.
However, the report noted that the underlying legislation remains in force, allowing Washington to withdraw the waiver at any time and use the threat of tariffs as leverage in future bilateral trade negotiations.
"The waiver has no fixed expiry date, but it can be withdrawn," GTRI said in its report, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding India's trade and energy security outlook.
The US Trade Representative will continue monitoring Russian energy purchases, enabling the administration to review the waiver and potentially revive the additional duties, the report added.
GTRI identified several factors that may have influenced Washington's decision to suspend the penalties, including its own energy requirements, the tariff arrangement with China and the potential impact on ongoing trade negotiations with India.
Under an October 9 agreement with Russia, the US decided to purchase Russian diesel to address domestic shortages and high fuel prices. Penalising other countries for buying Russian energy while making similar purchases itself could expose Washington to accusations of double standards, the report observed.
The report also highlighted Washington's agreement not to increase tariffs on China until January 10, following a deal reached during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the US last month. Targeting India with additional duties while China remains protected could complicate ongoing bilateral trade negotiations, it added.
For India, the waiver provides breathing room but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade pressure.
According to GTRI, Russia's share of India's oil imports declined from 51 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August as New Delhi increased purchases from the US and the United Arab Emirates.
Despite this shift, the continued validity of SRIA leaves Washington free to revive the tariff threat and potentially seek further concessions from India in bilateral trade talks.
GTRI cautioned that India should prioritise energy security, purchase oil on commercial terms and prepare for the possibility of renewed US pressure.
The report notes that India should treat the decision as temporary relief rather than a durable resolution of the underlying trade dispute.