New Delhi [India], October 28 : Global commodity prices are projected to rise 23 per cent in 2026, with energy prices expected to surge 32 per cent, as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts oil supplies and grain shipments, while weather risks threaten agricultural production, the World Bank Group said on Wednesday.
According to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook, Brent crude prices are forecast to average USD 91 per barrel in 2026, up from USD 69 in 2025, before easing to USD 79 in 2027. Overall commodity prices are expected to decline 7 per cent in 2027.
The report noted that depleted oil inventories have left global markets more vulnerable to further supply disruptions. Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2 per cent in 2026, the largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession, while consumption is expected to contract 2.5 per cent.
The World Bank attributed the decline in consumption to high prices amid supply shortages, alongside the impact of electrification, particularly in China. However, production is expected to remain below consumption, forcing further withdrawals from oil stocks.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. He warned that higher energy costs and trade disruptions could worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth.
Food commodity prices are forecast to increase around 10 per cent in 2026 and another 7 per cent in 2027, amounting to a cumulative rise of 18 per cent. Disruptions to grain shipments, the threat of El Niño and higher fuel and fertiliser costs are expected to put additional pressure on agricultural production and food affordability.
Fertiliser prices are projected to rise 14 per cent in 2026 before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Metal prices are expected to climb 25 per cent in 2026 to a new high, driven by demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, along with supply disruptions. Precious metal prices are forecast to rise 40 per cent amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
The report cautioned that an escalation of the Middle East conflict and continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure could push prices higher. Under an adverse scenario, Brent crude could average USD 105 per barrel in 2027, while food commodity prices could be 12 per cent above the baseline forecast, exceeding their 2022 levels.
To help countries manage the impact of higher prices, the World Bank Group said it had made USD 50 billion to USD 60 billion available through existing financing instruments, including USD 25 billion in pre-arranged financing.